Cash flow forecast for small business: a simple 13-week plan through Christmas and January

Start a 13-week cash flow forecast in the second week of November and it finishes in the first week of February. Our working: 13 weeks is 91 days, so a forecast that begins on Monday 9 November 2026 runs to Sunday 7 February 2027.

Inside that window sit every December pay run, the Christmas and New Year public holidays, and the super deadline for a Christmas Eve payday. Just outside it, three weeks after the last column, is the quarterly BAS for October to December, due 28 February.

That gap is the reason to keep the forecast rolling. Add a new week every Friday and, by our count, the February BAS enters your forecast at the end of November. That leaves about three months to have the money ready.

Our view at ARC Business Development: a rough forecast you update every Friday is worth more than a perfect one you open once a quarter. Here is how to build the simple version.

What a 13-week cash flow forecast is, and why weekly

The 13-week grid

Swipe across to see all 13 weeks.

Row	Week1	Week2	Week3	Week4	Week5	Week6	Week7	Week8	Week9	Week10	Week11	Week12	Week13
Opening balance
Cash incoming
Total incoming
Cash outgoing
Total outgoing
Cash balance for the period
Closing balance

Week 1 opening balance: your bank balance today

Each week's closing balance carries across to become the next week's opening balance.

Source: the business.gov.au cash flow statement template

The business.gov.au guide to setting up a cash flow statement describes a forecast as an estimate of future sales and costs. It shows whether income will cover costs, which helps you prevent shortages and avoid debt.

Thirteen weeks is a practical choice, not a rule. It is 91 days, about one quarter, so it lines up with the quarterly BAS cycle.

The weekly columns matter more than the length. A monthly view can show a healthy closing balance while hiding the one Thursday when wages, super and rent all leave before customers pay. The ATO's small business course suggests gathering your cash flow data regularly: daily or weekly for a retailer, and weekly, fortnightly or monthly for a contractor.

The layout is the government template's, with 13 columns instead of 12 months. The rows are opening balance, cash incoming, total incoming, cash outgoing, total outgoing, the period's cash balance and closing balance (Set up a cash flow statement).

What 13 weeks from November runs through

13 weeks from Monday 9 November 2026

Public holidayATO example date

Mon 7 DecATO example: $1,000 bonus paid
Thu 10 DecATO example: next regular payday
Mon 21 DecATO example: super for both due
Fri 25 DecChristmas Day
Sat 26 DecBoxing Day, with an additional holiday on Mon 28 Dec in most states. Tasmania's Boxing Day is Mon 28 Dec.
Fri 1 Jan 2027New Year's Day
Sun 28 Feb 2027Quarterly BAS Q2 (Oct to Dec) due 28 February: next business day if it falls on a weekend or public holiday; no extra 2 weeks for online lodgers

Employees get the public holidays of the place they are based.

The 13 weeks from Monday 9 November 2026 to Sunday 7 February 2027, with the holidays, the ATO's bonus example and the Q2 BAS date on their real days.

Sources: Fair Work Ombudsman and Australian Taxation Office

Fair Work's public holidays list puts these days inside the window:

Christmas Day, Friday 25 December 2026.
Boxing Day, Saturday 26 December, with an additional holiday on Monday 28 December in most states and territories (South Australia calls its Proclamation Day). In Tasmania, Boxing Day itself is Monday 28 December.
New Year's Day, Friday 1 January 2027.

Your staff are entitled to the holidays of the place they are based (Public holidays). NT, Queensland and South Australia have an evening-only holiday on Christmas Eve (from 6 pm in Queensland, 7 pm in the NT and SA). The NT and South Australia have one on New Year's Eve too (from 7 pm) (Public holidays).

For many businesses, those days move cash in two directions. Money going out can bunch up around them, with public holiday pay and super deadlines that stretch across the break. Money coming in can slip: if your customers close over Christmas, receipts you expected in the last week of December may not arrive until January. Move those receipts in the forecast and label them as estimates.

Free cash flow forecast template: building yours step by step

Five steps to your first forecast

1 Opening balance: your real bank balance today. Each later week opens on the previous week's closing balance.
2 Known cash in: sales, debtor receipts, grants, tax rebates.
3 Known cash out: wages, super, allowances, rent and rates, utilities, accountant fees, advertising, BAS, loan repayments.
4 Estimates labelled as estimates, with GST stated as included or excluded.
5 Closing balance = opening balance + total incoming minus total outgoing.

Tick each step as you build the sheet.

Sources: business.gov.au, Set up a cash flow statement and Guide to managing cash flow

business.gov.au offers a free downloadable cash flow statement template (xlsx) on its cash flow statement page. Enter estimated figures for each future period and it works as a forecast. Relabel the 12 monthly columns as weeks and add a thirteenth, and you have your 13-week sheet. The template assumes figures include GST, so change that note if yours exclude it.

1. Start from the real bank balance. Your first opening balance is your opening bank balance. After that, each week opens on the previous week's closing balance (Set up a cash flow statement).

2. List the cash you know is coming in. Put in invoices due and when customers usually pay them. Incoming cash can include sales, debtor receipts, grants and tax rebates. Base your estimates on previous years, seasonal trends and regular income sources (Set up a cash flow statement).

3. List the cash you know is going out. Look at previous years, seasonal trends and major costs, such as accountant fees, advertising, rent and rates, and utilities (Set up a cash flow statement). Include wages, super and allowances (Guide to managing cash flow). Add your BAS payments and loan repayments in the weeks they actually leave the account.

4. Label every estimate. Where a figure is a guess, label it and explain it, and state whether your figures include or exclude GST (Set up a cash flow statement). Pick one convention and keep it across all 13 weeks.

5. Work out each closing balance. Closing balance equals opening balance plus total incoming, minus total outgoing (Set up a cash flow statement). Any week that closes below what you need to keep in the bank is the week to look at first.

The tax dates to put in the weeks

BAS due dates
Period	Due date	Extra 2 weeks for online lodgers?
Q1 (July to September)	28 October	may apply
Q2 (October to December)	28 February	no, because this date already includes a one-month extension
Q3 (January to March)	28 April	may apply
Q4 (April to June)	28 July	may apply
Monthly BAS	21st of the following month	Quarterly only. Compulsory at a GST turnover of $20 million or more, or if the ATO has directed you to report monthly (checked October 2026); optional below that.

A due date on a weekend or public holiday moves to the next business day.

BAS due dates and who can claim extra time.

Source: Australian Taxation Office

The ATO's due dates for lodging and paying your BAS are:

Q1 (July to September): 28 October.
Q2 (October to December): 28 February.
Q3 (January to March): 28 April.
Q4 (April to June): 28 July.

Online lodgers may get an extra two weeks on quarterly BAS, but not for Q2, because that due date already includes a one-month extension (BAS due dates). If a due date falls on a weekend or public holiday, you have until the next business day (same page).

Two dates are worth checking against your own situation:

Q1, still open for some. If you lodge online and the extra two weeks applies to you, our working puts your Q1 date at 11 November. That is inside the first week of a forecast started on 9 November.
Q2, on a Sunday. New Year's Day 2027 is a Friday, which makes 28 February 2027 a Sunday, so the next-business-day rule applies. We would still put the payment in the week ending on the 28th and treat any extra day as a buffer.

Monthly BAS is due on the 21st of the following month. It is compulsory at a GST turnover of $20 million or more, or if the ATO has directed you to report monthly (checked October 2026), and you can choose it below that. The ATO lists smaller, more manageable payments as a possible cash flow benefit (BAS due dates).

Christmas pay runs and super in the forecast

Counting 7 business days from payday

PaydayCount from here.
Business day
Business day
SaturdaySkipped.
SundaySkipped.
Business day
Public holidayFor the whole of any state or territory, even one where you don't operate. Skipped.
Business day
Business dayPart-state holiday, such as Royal Hobart Show Day: counted.
Business day
Business day
Fund must have received the super

New employee or new fund20 business days for the first contribution.

Bonuses and back payOut-of-cycle payments such as these: the super is due on the same day as the super for your next regular payday. ATO example: $1,000 bonus 7 Dec 2026, payday 10 Dec, due 21 Dec 2026.

Saturdays, Sundays and whole-state public holidays do not count towards the 7 business days.

Source: Australian Taxation Office

For earnings paid from 1 July 2026, super must be received by the employee's fund within 7 business days of payday, and the ATO calls paying on payday best practice (Payment deadlines for Payday Super). The first contribution for a new employee or a new fund gets 20 business days (same page).

A whole-state public holiday in any state or territory is not a business day for Payday Super, even if your business is somewhere else, while a part-state holiday such as Royal Hobart Show Day still counts as one (Payment deadlines for Payday Super).

Here is what that does over Christmas. Say your weekly payday is Thursday and one falls on Thursday 24 December. Our estimate of the 7 business days:

Friday 25 December is Christmas Day, so it is skipped.
Monday 28 December is a whole-state holiday everywhere: the additional holiday in most states and Boxing Day in Tasmania. It is skipped too.
Day 1 is Tuesday 29 December.
Friday 1 January is skipped.
Day 7 lands on Thursday 7 January 2027.

The ATO's definition does not mention evening-only holidays, so we have counted 31 December as a business day. Treat 7 January as the date to plan around.

Bonuses and back pay run on a different clock. Super on bonuses and back pay is due on the same day as the super for your next regular payday. In the ATO's example, a $1,000 bonus paid on 7 December 2026 is due with the 10 December payday, on 21 December 2026 (Payment deadlines for Payday Super).

Late super makes you liable for the super guarantee charge. The NPP can allow same-day receipt by the fund, but some service providers may be slower (Payment deadlines for Payday Super). Funds now have 3 business days to allocate or reject a payment (Top tips to meet the Payday Super 7 business day timeframe).

For the forecast, the simplest habit is to put each pay run's super in the same week as its wages. If you pay on payday, that is exactly when it leaves. If you don't, your forecast will flatter the week of the pay run.

Our earlier post on planning your cash flow for Payday Super covers the pay-run detail.

Set tax and super money aside as you go

Where the money moves

Customer payments

Main business accountwhat's left is what you have to spend

Separate account (or accounts)

GST
PAYG withholding
Employee super

BAS payment

Super fund

Small weekly transfers run from the main account into a separate account (or accounts) for GST, PAYG withholding and employee super.

Sources: business.gov.au, Guide to managing cash flow, and the Australian Government's small business tax site

business.gov.au suggests putting regular costs such as GST, PAYG withholding and employee super into a separate bank account (Guide to managing cash flow). The ATO's course says small, regular amounts set aside this way reduce cash flow pressure. Its example has a sole trader moving a portion of income into a separate account each week to meet quarterly GST and avoid the general interest charge (Separating money for tax).

Show that weekly transfer as its own outgoing line in the forecast. Your main account's closing balance, after the transfers, shows what is left to spend, which is one of the ATO's four cash flow questions. When the February BAS arrives, the money is already sitting in its own account.

The weekly habit: compare, roll forward, act early

Every Friday

1CompareThe estimate with the actual figures for the week just gone.

2Roll forwardDrop that week and add a new week 13.

The ATO's four questions

What is my cash position?
How much do I need to pay in tax and super commitments?
How much does my business have available to spend?
Has my business improved?

3Act earlyOn any week that dips: chase invoices, adjust supplier terms, talk to the ATO or your tax professional before a due date.

A three-step loop for each Friday, with the ATO's four questions at its centre.

Sources: business.gov.au, the Australian Government's small business tax site and the Australian Taxation Office

Each Friday, put the week's actual figures beside your estimates. business.gov.au suggests comparing estimated with actual income and costs to find shortfalls quickly, then reducing costs, chasing overdue invoices or revising the budget.

Then roll it forward: drop the week just gone and add a new week 13. Updating regularly helps you spot seasonal trends and cycles, so you can prepare for busy times and plan for quiet periods (Guide to managing cash flow).

The ATO puts the point of the exercise as four questions (Gather your cash flow data):

What is my cash position?
How much do I need to pay in tax and super commitments?
How much does my business have available to spend?
Has my business improved?

A short check each Friday should answer all four.

What to do when a week dips below zero

When a week dips

Warning signs

Struggling to pay bills
Relying on credit
Delaying supplier payments

Levers to test in a copy of the forecast before acting

Invoice earlier
Take deposits
Offer early-payment discounts
Chase overdue invoices
Negotiate supplier terms (the business.gov.au example is 60 days instead of 30)
Pay staff commission once the customer has paid

If a tax payment is at risk, contact the ATO or your tax professional before the due date. Online payment plans may be available if you owe $200,000 or less (checked October 2026), need an up-front payment, and GIC keeps accruing.

What to look for, and what to test before you act.

Sources: business.gov.au and the Australian Taxation Office

The warning signs of cash flow pressure are struggling to pay bills, relying on credit and delaying supplier payments (Guide to managing cash flow). A forecast lets you see those weeks coming instead of living through them.

When a week dips, test the levers in a copy of the forecast before you act. business.gov.au lists several ways to improve your cash flow:

Collect cash owed faster: invoice earlier, take deposits, offer early-payment discounts and chase overdue invoices.
Negotiate supplier terms. The Guide to managing cash flow gives the example of a 60-day term instead of 30 days.
Pay staff commission once the customer has paid.

Move the figures, and see which week recovers.

If the dip lands on a tax payment, contact the ATO or your tax professional before the due date. Online payment plans may be available if you owe $200,000 or less (checked October 2026). They need an up-front payment, and the general interest charge keeps accruing (BAS due dates). That call is far easier to make with the forecast already in front of you.

Your 13-week forecast on one page

The formula
Closing balance = opening balance + total incoming minus total outgoing. The next opening balance is this closing balance.
Source: business.gov.au, Set up a cash flow statement
Holidays
Christmas Day Fri 25 Dec 2026. Boxing Day Sat 26 Dec, additional holiday Mon 28 Dec in most states (Tasmania's Boxing Day Mon 28 Dec). New Year's Day Fri 1 Jan 2027.
Source: Fair Work Ombudsman, Public holidays
Payday Super
7 business days after payday (20 for first payment to a new employee or fund).
Source: ATO, Payment deadlines for Payday Super
Quarterly BAS Q2
Due 28 February: next business day if a weekend or public holiday; no online 2-week extension for Q2.
Source: ATO, Due dates for lodging and paying your BAS
ATO online payment plan
$200,000 or less owed (checked October 2026), up-front payment needed, GIC keeps accruing.
Source: ATO, Due dates for lodging and paying your BAS

The fixed points, in one place, to keep beside the spreadsheet.

Everything above comes down to a few fixed points:

The formula, with each week opening on the last week's close (Set up a cash flow statement).
The Christmas and New Year holidays (Public holidays).
The Payday Super clock (Payment deadlines for Payday Super).
The February BAS just past the window (BAS due dates).

Print it, or keep it beside the spreadsheet.

Getting a second pair of eyes on the numbers

The first forecast is the slow one. Getting the real bank balance, every pay run and every BAS onto one sheet takes an afternoon, and after that each Friday is a short update.

If you'd like to walk through your 13 weeks with someone else before Christmas, book a call with ARC Business Development. Bring the spreadsheet, even half-finished, and we'll look at the weeks that worry you. For more on reading your own figures, see our page on knowing your numbers.